WINDS OF CHANGE IN TRADITIONAL KINGDOM
by Amir Taheri
Gulf News
February 10, 2005

The man Musayib, an 83-year-old former merchant, had been listening to was one of the scores of candidates hoping to win a seat in the Saudi capital's municipal council elections being held today.

When the government first announced plans for elections the initial reaction was a raising of eyebrows all around. Conservatives feared even limited municipal elections would lead to the spread of what they regard as "the disease of democracy" into the very heartland of Islam. To underline their concern they quoted an Arab proverb: "When the head of the camel enters the tent, the rest of it is bound to follow". Liberals dismissed the exercise, as too little too late and expressed concern it may be nothing but a manoeuvre to give the kingdom a better image in the West. Later, they were even more dubious when it was announced that women would be excluded.

Those concerns were reflected in slow voter registration and the even slower turn up of candidates in the early stages of the operation.

Stepping forward

At one point rumours began to circulate about a possible cancellation of the polls. But then, to the surprise of all, things began to pick up as men stepped forward to register as voters and stand as candidates.

It is difficult at this stage to gauge the long-term impact of these elections which, starting in Riyadh today, will be completed in three stages over the next few weeks on the complex politics of this traditionalist kingdom.

Some even argue that these elections are limited to municipal affairs; a matter of "collecting the rubbish in the streets" they say dismissively. Others are trying to hype the exercise into a baptism of democracy in one of the last bastions of traditional Arab rule.

Having talked to people and taken the temperature in the kingdom in the past few days my guess is, whichever way things turn, the elections represent a major historic event in the kingdom. There are several reasons for this.

The first, and potentially the most important in political terms, is a taboo has been broken. Even until a year ago, all talk of elections was regarded as almost sacrilegious. The argument was that Muslim societies had no need of elections, which imply competition among individual believers, and could do well with the tradition of shoura or consultation. This means the man in charge sounds out all those with the greatest expertise in any matter and, making a synthesis of their opinions and recommendations, takes the best decision that would then be endorsed by the most learned of the theologians. There is no need to allow any Tom, Dick and Harry a say in decisions that affect the whole community. The elections will deal a blow to that doctrine.

They represent at least an implicit recognition of one of the basic principles of democracy: that all citizens are entitled to a say in decisions that concern their lives. (The fact that the female half of the citizenry is excluded this time does not change the basics of the argument.)

The second reason why these elections are important is they have revealed no significant popular opposition to the idea of elections as such. The fear that dyed-in-wool reactionaries would use the exercise as an excuse for widening their audience has proved groundless. Most Saudis seem to like elections and, far from complaining, look set to demand for more.

Transformed

These elections are important as they offer the first glimpse of the Saudi middle classes operating in a non-traditional political context. Much has been written about these new middle classes, men and women who have been transformed from poverty-stricken desert-dwellers to wealthy citizens of modern metropolises within the lifespan of two generations. But this is the first time a real sociological photography of these middle classes is emerging.

These middle classes represent alternative new social and cultural structures capable of cutting across traditional tribal lines. Even differences in religious persuasion are either set aside or merely hinted at by a handful of candidates. (In Riyadh, for example, only one candidate mentioned "imposing the shariah" as part of his election manifesto.)

The photography presented by the elections reveals other interesting facts. A majority of the candidates have Western-style educational backgrounds and, in many cases, have attended colleges and universities in Europe or the United States. This is why many candidates seem to have taken to the election like ducks to water. Many have hired Western public relations experts to help them design their campaigns complete with media blitzes and, in some cases, dirty tricks. Their campaigns would not have been out of place in Peoria.

Last but not least, the elections have already enriched the Saudi political vocabulary in an unexpected direction.

Here are some of the new words and phrases that were almost never heard in the kingdom even a year ago: elections, campaigning, canvassing, public opinion surveys, focus groups, debates, platforms, voting, candidates, voters, polling station, ballot paper, ballot box, monitors, transparency, accountability, good governance, reform, and renovation.

Cynics might dismiss all this as nothing but a series of verbal pirouettes that ultimately amount to a big confidence trick. But cynics would be wrong, as they always are. A change of discourse is the first and most important step towards more structural political changes.

Saudi society is a deeply conservative one and inherently suspicious of change. But the elections show that a substantial part of society is now prepared to espouse change, albeit in homeopathic doses.

Almost everyone agrees that these elections are the first step on a long road the kingdom has to take to reflect in its political life the dramatic social, economic and cultural changes it has experienced over the past four or five decades.

Amir Taheri is an Iranian author of ten books on the Middle East and Islam, and a member of Benador Associates.