Last updated: 6:43 am
May 14, 2009
Posted: 3:03 am
May 14, 2009

FEARS that the Obama administration intends to let Iran become a nuclear power has sent other Middle Eastern countries shopping around for partners to help them join the nuclear club.

Saudi Arabia is the latest, announcing last Sunday that it's reached an "agreement in principle" with France to develop a "nuclear industry for peaceful purposes." It becomes the third Arab country -- after Egypt and Qatar -- to seek French help in joining the nuclear club. The United Arab Emirates, which has signed a pact with the United States not to enrich uranium, is negotiating a similar deal with France.

Iraq, which in the 1970s became the first Arab country to start a nuclear program, also intends to seek a return to the nuclear club. Last month, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki set up an effort to bring together Iraq's nuclear scientists and invite those in exile to return home.

It doesn't matter that the region is awash in oil and natural gas: The Gulf Cooperation Council has set up a study group to find a fast track to nuclear power. Having spent more than $140 billion on arms purchases in the past decade, the oil-rich Arab monarchies that make up the council -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman -- and allies such as Egypt and Jordan would have little difficulty financing a massive nuclear project.

Then there's Turkey, where a debate is under way about the need to develop "an indigenous nuclear capability." Some Turks regard America as a fickle friend and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Turkey is a founding member, as "an umbrella full of holes." Iran has been Turkey's regional rival for more than 600 years. It would be inconceivable for the Turks to sit still and accept a nuclear-armed Iran.

Having triggered the nuclear race, Iran is also playing an active role in proliferation. The Islamic Republic has signed agreements to help Syria and Venezuela achieve "nuclear capacity," and talks are under way with the Sudan for a similar accord.

If he's re-elected in June, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plans a tour of Latin America shortly afterward to help left-wing regimes acquire the industrial base that the American "Great Satan" is supposed to have denied them for decades. The nuclear option will be on the agenda in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia, and he will invite Brazil to enter into joint ventures to manufacture missiles and combat aircraft.

China and Pakistan are also emerging as active players in what could become a nuclear-arms race in the Greater Middle East region.

China is negotiating with Iran to build 20 nuclear power stations over the next decade. With no international control over what happens to the spent fuel generated by those stations, Iran could end up having enough material to make hundreds of bombs as a sideline to generating electricity.

Pakistan, which has no nuclear power stations but boasts a credible arsenal of nuclear weapons, has put its military technology on the market. Having initially financed the Pakistani nuclear project, Saudi Arabia and the UAE now hope to reap the benefits in the form of a helping hand from Islamabad.

Another player in this deadly game is North Korea, which has already worked with Pakistan, Iran and Syria on a number of nuclear projects and related missile systems.

The US nuclear industry is keen on getting a chunk of a lucrative market. The deal that the US has signed with the UAE would become inoperative if the US recognizes the right of any other nation in the region to enrich uranium. That would enable the UAE to "add other dimensions" to the accords it has negotiated with France and Pakistan.

So far, President Obama hasn't shown much interest in the coming nuclear-arms race in the Middle East. Instead, he has announced his desire to reduce the US nuclear arsenal. He soon may be forced to change direction on both fronts.

Amir Taheri's latest book is "The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution."