June 27, 2009
Posted: 1:32 am
June 27, 2009

The New York Post

PRESIDENT Obama remains adamant about his policy of "engagement" with Iran. Yet he may soon find it hard to find a credible interlocutor in Tehran.

One can see the split down the middle of the ruling elite in all of the constituencies that together form the Khomeinist establishment.

The politically active segment of the Shiite clergy: Some senior mullahs (like Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Abdul-Karim Mousavi Ardebili and Yussef Sanei) side with the opposition. Others (such as Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami) support "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who has emerged as the regime's field commander.

The military: Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad Najjar and Interior Minister Gen. Sadeq Mahsouli have sided with Khamenei's hard-line stance. Adm. Ali Shamkhani (a former defense minister) and Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi (a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander) have indicated support for the opposition.

Unconfirmed reports say at least 17 mid-ranking Guard officers have been relieved of their posts. A senior commander, Gen. Ali Fazli, who led the elite "Master of the Martyrs' Division," has been "reassigned" after refusing to order troops to crush the demonstrators.

The position of Gen. Muhammad-Ali Jaafari, the Guard's commander, remains an enigma. Although promoted under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he has on occasion indicated unhappiness with the president's style, if not the substance of policies.

Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi, the armed forces chief of staff and the country's most senior military figure, has also tried to remain neutral, though some claim he sympathizes with the opposition.

Senior technocrats: Some, like former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati, have rallied to the "supreme guide." Others, like nuclear-project head Gholam-Reza Aghazadeh and former Foreign Minister Kamaleddin Kharrazi, have indicated support for the opposition. Deputy Oil Minister Akbar Torkan was just dismissed because of suspected opposition sympathies.

Other influential figures such as Gen. Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Tehran's mayor, and Ali Larijani, speaker of the Islamic Majlis, Iran's ersatz parliament, have tried to sit on the fence, making noises supporting the opposition one day and professing loyalty to the "supreme guide" the next.

Also split is the merchant class of the bazaars, a mainstay of the Khomeinist regime. Rival appeals have been published exhorting the bazaar to shut down in protest of the election results or in celebration of Ahmadinejad's "historic victory."

It will be interesting to see what happens when some key regime organs hold their next meetings.

Take the High Council of National Defense. Both Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Mousavi are ex-officio members, along with former Presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. One half might side with Mousavi, the other with Ahmadinejad.

Then there is the Expediency Council (officially the Council for the Discernment of the Interests of the Established Order). Its head is Rafsanjani, with Gen. Mohsen Reza'i Mir-Qaed, one of the three defeated presidential candidates, as secretary-general. But at least half of its members have expressed support for Ahmadinejad.

A similar situation exists in the Assembly of Experts, a 92-mullah organ that supervises the supreme guide's work and has the legal power to impeach him. Rafsanjani, now regarded as a key opposition figure, chairs the assembly -- but (for now, at least) can't produce the two-thirds majority required to oust Khamenei.

The split in the Islamic Majlis is even more glaring. By some estimates, a third of the members tilt toward Mousavi while another third favors Ahmadinejad. The remaining third belongs to the "party of the wind," siding with whoever seems to be winning.

In the Council of Ministers, headed by Ahmadinejad, at least four men are thought to be sympathetic to the opposition and likely to be purged in the coming reshuffle.

The split also extends into the leading families associated with Khomeinism. One of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's granddaughters has emerged as a passionaria for the Mousavi camp. On the other hand, a grandson of the late ayatollah is a propagandist for Ahmadinejad.

Khamenei's eldest son, Mujtaba, has become an ardent Ahmadinejad advocate, touring the country to mobilize support. On the other hand, Khamenei's brother, Hadi, supports Mehdi Karrubi, a defeated presidential candidate and a vocal Ahmadinejad opponent.

The split could lead to a bloody showdown, at the end of which the winner will launch a massive purge. In the Khomeinist system, there's no room for compromise, whether at home or in foreign policy.

Amir Taheri's latest book is "The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution."