July 22, 2009
Posted: 3:36 am
July 22, 2009

The New York Post

WILL President Obama help the Khomeinist re gime regain some of the legitimacy it lost in last month's rigged presidential election?

Former President Muhammad Khatami raised that question Sunday while meeting with families of some of the 5,000 activists arrested during anti-regime protests.

Khatami, a mid-ranking mullah, was echoing remarks by another former president, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has indicated he won't recognize President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election to a second four-year term.

In his speech, Khatami suggested holding a referendum to establish the legitimacy of the regime. He didn't specify the question to be put to the vote but insisted that an "outside authority," such as the United Nations, supervise it.

Remarks by both Rafsanjani and Khatami show that the opposition is determined to not endorse a second Ahmadinejad administration. Even if such an administration seemed a fait accompli, much of the establishment, perhaps even a majority, would continue to withhold its allegiance.

The two former presidents have indicated they won't attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration, which has been postponed to Sept. 2 in hope of finding a compromise to end the boycott.

To cover up his isolation at home, Ahmadinejad hopes to tempt the West with promises of negotiations.

Last week, Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said the government was "putting finishing touches to a package of initiatives" for submission to the 5+1 Group (which consists of the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) as soon as Ahmadinejad is sworn in for a second term.

Mottaki's statement came hours after French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner disclosed that the European Union might withhold recognition of a second Ahmadinejad presidency until an "internal compromise" occurs in Tehran.

Kouchner, however, had to tone down his remarks when the Obama administration reiterated its determination to "engage Iran" regardless of who emerges on top in Tehran.

Meanwhile, Iran's state-run media have orders to highlight even the slightest sign of support from abroad.

For example, a brief cable by the Comoros Islands' president congratulating Ahmadinejad on his re-election made the headlines, while a speech by former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski ostensibly praising the Islamic Republic's "democracy" was highlighted and commented upon for days.

The state-controlled media also have orders to treat Obama with kid gloves. Even his harsher statements about the Iranian election fraud are imputed to "pressure from Zionist elements in Washington."

The opposition's strategy is to hammer home the claim that Ahmadinejad's presidency is rejected both inside and outside Iran.

Former Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mousavi, who claims he won the June 12 presidential election, has indicated that any agreements that Ahmadinejad might make with foreign powers would be "unacceptable."

At a meeting last week with relatives of some of those killed in the recent protests, Mousavi warned foreign powers not to "ignore the reality of the situation in Iran," urging them to be "on the side of the Iranian people, not their oppressors."

Despite efforts to secure international support, Ahmadinejad has failed to persuade nations with diplomatic ties to Tehran to endorse his presidency publicly. Of the 57 nations that form the Islamic Conference Organization, fewer than half have sent him congratulatory messages on his re-election. Among Iran's 15 neighbors, only six have done so.

Ahmadinejad's first inauguration four years ago was attended by envoys from 87 countries. This time, fewer than half are expected to attend.

Many "historic figures of the revolution" are also likely to stay away, signaling that Ahmadinejad might find it hard to regain enough legitimacy to lead Iran in a time of crisis.

Obama, however, could give Ahmadinejad a respite by welcoming him as a legitimate negotiating partner. Ahmadinejad's advisers talk of a possible September meeting with Obama in New York during the UN General Assembly session. Such a meeting would give both men the photo-ops they need to boost their respective political fortunes.

But what if Ahmadinejad is already mortally wounded politically? To cover his weakness, he may meet Obama and make noises about "solving problems through negotiations."

As far as Obama is concerned, that would amount to fool's gold. For if Ahmadinejad succeeds in restoring his hold on Iran, he's sure to return to his strategy of "a world without America." And if he doesn't re-impose himself, his successors might resent Obama's efforts to save the regime from drowning by inviting it to the lifeboat of substantive talks.

Obama would be wise to think twice before he issues such an invitation.